Living with global warming

Should we try to prevent global warming? Or should we use our resources to adapt to the consequences of warming? Climate change is projected to exacerbate existing problems – but it is not expected to produce new ones. These problems are a particular concern for developing countries, which lack the economic and human resources needed to cope with them, says author Indur M. Goklany.

Adaptation would reduce society's vulnerability to, or help cope with, the consequences of global climate change due to higher emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal greenhouse gas, says Goklany.

According to various United Nations-affiliated organisations:

By 2085, the contribution of (unmitigated) warming to malaria, hunger, water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity is generally smaller than other factors unrelated to climate change.

A $10 billion annual investment in measures to deal directly with these problems would cost much less than the Kyoto Protocol, which will cost participating countries about $165 billion annually.

Kyoto, however, will not stabilise, much less reduce, atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Stabilising atmospheric levels of CO2 at 550 parts per million (much higher than today's levels) would cost several trillion dollars.

Halting climate change, if that were possible, would cost many more trillions of dollars.

Adaptation would help developing countries cope with major problems now, and through 2085 and beyond, whereas generations would pass before anything less than draconian mitigation would have a discernible effect, says Goklany.

Source: Indur M. Goklany, Living with Global Warming, National Centre for Policy Analysis, Report No. 278, September 2005.

For text: http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st278

For more on Global Warming: Impacts and Responses: http://eteam.ncpa.org/issues/?c=impacts-and-response

FMF Policy Bulletin/ 20 September 2005