Job losses in U.S. due to September 11

A Los Angeles-based think tank has attempted to quantify the number of U.S. jobs lost as a result of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11. The Milken Institute compared two scenarios for 2002. One assumed there had been no terrorist attack and only a mild recession based on economic trends prior to Sept. 11. The other took into account the economic wounds inflicted by the attacks.

In a report released last week, the institute estimated that the attacks will cost 1.64 million jobs up to the end of 2002.

Tourism and air travel-dependent areas, as well as New York City, are being most heavily affected.

The institute's main thesis is that added security at airports, increased travel time and general caution will further cut travel to destinations already suffering from a drop-off in corporate-funded and leisure travel related to the general recession.

Among the hardest hit tourist destinations will be Las Vegas – which is projected to lose an additional 5 percent, or nearly 41,000 jobs attributable to the attacks.

Other affected destinations include Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Reno, Nevada; Orlando, Florida; and Honolulu.

Cities with airport hubs or dependent on aircraft construction will also be disproportionately hurt – including Wichita, Kansas and Fort Worth, Texas.

While the study says most cities will see recovery in 2003, it will take a year longer for New York City to recover economically.

Source: Andrew Caffrey, Attacks to Cost U.S. 1.64 Million Jobs, Survey Forecasts, Wall Street Journal, January 11, 2002.

For text (WSJ subscribers)
http://interactive.wsj.com/article/SB1010703370387745280.htm
For report text http://www.milkeninstitute.org
For more on the Effects of Terrorism http://www.ncpa.org/iss/ter/

FMF Policy Bulletin\15 January 2002