This article was first published by Business Day on 17 July 2023
How opposition parties can team up to oust the ANC
SA is not heading in the right direction. According to the Brenthurst Foundation, in a survey published last year, 80.1% of South Africans agree with me. But we don’t need surveys gauging mere opinion to see that our country is not on the right path.
Unemployment is at unsustainable levels, poverty is rising and infrastructure is collapsing. We think that a few days with only two-and-a-half hours of load-shedding apiece is prosperity, when we should be outraged that the electricity is going out at all. Our foreign policy jeopardises our economy while putting us on the side of warmongers. And all the while violent crime runs rampant.
At the root of many of the country’s issues is terrible governance by the ANC. Deployment of incompetent public servants, terrible legislation and an obsession with socialist and collectivist ideology have ensured that the ANC is and will continue to be unable to be the ruling party that this country needs.
It is clear the ANC must not govern for this country to recover and prosper. But no single opposition party commands the clout or popularity to overtake the ANC and win outright. This leaves a single choice. A collection of opposition parties must work together in a stable coalition that will overtake the ANC in local government, and eventually in national elections in 2024.
The track record of opposition coalitions has not been good, however. In Gauteng, DA-led coalitions have collapsed to infighting, sabotage and flurries of motions of no confidence. Smaller parties have accused the DA of being heavy-handed and dictatorial, while the DA has accused a select few parties of being bad actors.
The latter has far more credence. The Johannesburg coalition collapsed after the Patriotic Alliance (PA) changed its allegiance to the ANC after the DA refused to grant it access to the Economic Development Fund. The PA has proved again and again that it is an opportunistic party that will sell its soul for a quick buck.
ActionSA has always been a subtler but still dangerous bad coalition member. It has repeatedly focused its energy on attacking the DA rather than working on creating a cohesive and stable coalition.
But this is all in the past. We are a young democracy, and our parties and politicians can and will learn who to trust and how to behave. No more infighting, no more sabotage and no more badmouthing allies. The focus must be on ousting the ANC, preventing the EFF from rising to power, and ensuring that skilled and responsible people make it into the government to destroy the bad legislation and make the changes needed to put this country on the right path.
But as it stands, the ANC will still be the dominant party even if opposition parties form a stable coalition. There are five possible results for the 2024 national elections.
Scenario 1
The ANC’s track record continues, and voters continue to remain loyal to it despite all its crimes and failures. It will receive 50%+ and continue to plunder the country.
Scenario 2
An increasingly likely scenario: the ANC’s popularity will drop as a result of its incompetence and the rising distrust by voters. But in this scenario, the ANC still has enough allies in smaller parties, such as Al Jama-ah, to secure its power. These parties won’t rock the boat because they will receive access to corruption money and a nice salary for their leaders.
Scenario 3
The next scenario is the often-mentioned “coalition of doom”. If the ANC drops to 40%-44%, it can secure a coalition government with the EFF. This is a potentially disastrous scenario. Either the EFF will bring out the ANC’s worst tendencies, with socialist and racist ideology and rampant looting, or the EFF will put the government into deadlock, preventing any semblance of recovery.
Scenario 4
An ANC-DA coalition has been ridiculed by many, including ActionSA and members of the DA itself, but it is not a scenario that South African voters deplore. In a survey conducted by the Social Research Foundation, two-thirds of voters wanted the ANC and DA to govern together. Even among voters who don’t support the DA, the official opposition is still seen as a respectable party. But there is still a lot of loyalty to the ANC for its liberation credentials.
This scenario is fraught with peril. The ANC could destroy the DA from within. The DA could squander all the goodwill it has with its voters. Or the coalition could work out and the DA could teach the ANC a thing or two about governance.
Scenario 5
The ANC dropping below 30%-34% is the magic number. This is where opposition parties can possibly form a coalition to oust the ANC and usher in a new and fresh government. But this scenario is incredibly unlikely to come to fruition. ANC support will need to drop by at least 23%.
How can the opposition achieve this?
No single party will be able to secure a majority against the ANC. As it stands, not even a combined coalition of parties can take away the ANC’s majority. What the opposition needs to do is provide a credible and respectable alternative to the ANC that captures the voting public’s imagination. In a country as divided as SA, this is not something that any single party can accomplish. But many can.
The DA is undoubtedly the leading opposition party, with the second-highest number of votes in the country and dominance over an entire province. It is the most well-organised and professionally run party. Yet it struggles to secure the support of many voters — and will continue to be regarded as a “white party”, and even one that may bring apartheid back. These were myths that persisted even when Mmusi Maimane was leader.
It is a foolish battle for the DA to try to contest and win every voter in the country. There are demographics and areas that it simply cannot win. Contesting those voters and areas is a waste of resources and energy. Rather, allied opposition parties should stop competing with each other at the outset over certain areas. Instead, they should step out of the way and allow their allies to win easy victories in strongholds that reflect their values and demographic focus.
The DA should stick to middle-class areas, ActionSA should focus on securing the township vote, the IFP must leverage its ethnic loyalties, and the African Christian Democratic Party should use its connection to Christian communities to win votes for the opposition as a block, rather than as individual parties in contest.
This will also help with cohesion and relations between parties. Rather than competitors who now have to work in chaotic coalitions that require legislation to function, parties can dominate respective areas without dividing the vote — working together on a national stage instead.
It is foolish for dozens of parties to compete with each other, wasting resources and political energy, when they can divide constituencies up among parties that are more likely to perform well and secure a majority. Voters on the fence will be more likely to vote for a single party that is putting more effort into a local election than if they had to focus resources on many different areas.
Most of all, this display of unity and working together will signal to voters that the opposition is serious about creating a unified and cohesive alliance against the ANC. And that signal will encourage more and more voters to put their vote behind the opposition coalition.