Childless Europe

In the 1990s, European demographers began noticing a downward trend in population across the Continent and a sharply falling birth rate. Then in 2002, a study by Italian, German, and Spanish social scientists released data, which gave policy makers across the European Union something to ponder:

For the first time, birth-rates in southern and Eastern Europe dropped to 1.3, far below the "replacement rate" of 2.1 – the average number of births per woman that will maintain a country's current population level.

At the rate of 1.3, a country's population would be cut in half in 45 years.

Putting those numbers in a broader world-historical context is stirring a debate about Europe's future, says the New York Times:

In 1963, Europe represented 12.5 per cent of the world's population.

Today it is 7.2 per cent, and if current trends continue, by 2050 only 5 per cent of the world will be European.

The main threat to Europe from the declining population trends is economic says the Times. According to a paper from the Rand Europe research group:

Demographers and economists foresee that 30 million Europeans of working age will "disappear" by 2050.

Europeans are used to early retirement – in fact, only 60 per cent of men in France between the ages of 50 and 64 are still working.

In 2025, 42 per cent of the people living in India will be 24 or younger, while only 22 per cent of Spain's population will be in that age group, resulting in a "war for talent" and an ever-smaller work force.

Declining population trends are not unique to Europe:

Even in developing countries, birth-rates have plummeted – from 6 per cent globally in 1972 to 2.9 per cent today.

According to the United Nations, the birth-rate in 25 developing countries now stands at or below the replacement level.

Source: Russell Shorto, Childless Europe New York Times Magazine, June 30, 2008.

For text: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/magazine/29Birth-t.html

For more on Social Issues: http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_Category=28

FMF Policy Bulletin/ 8 July 2008